Talks about the importance of complete vs. incomplete knowledge in prediction markets, noting that “If a reasonable degree of information completeness is a necessary precondition for prediction market accuracy, how will we know if it has been satisfied?  As stated above, we don’t really know whether the condition is satisfied for most prediction markets.  We have to rely on optimizing the quantity of traders, while maximizing their diversity, independence and decentralization, under a cost constraint.  To a large extent, this requires trial and error in the field.  Market specifications for one market may not work as well with other markets.  It will be necessary to increase the number of real markets and learn what works, what doesn’t, and why.”