Nate Silver, Artist of Uncertainty, has a new book out.
“If most polls are reporting a tight race, an outlier showing a bigger gap will be the poll that makes news, thus getting more of our attention. Partisan TV pundits try to assuage the worries of the faithful on their side instead of making accurate predictions. When Silver analyzed 1,000 predictions on The McClaughlin Group, he found them no more accurate than flipping a coin. ”